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I. Estimation
- Get data.
- Estimate parameters of stock prices; (52) and (53).
- Estimate parameters of interest rate dynamics (cf. Subsection
4.1).
- Compute the historical time series
(
) by (57).
- Solve equations (50) and (49) for
the historical
(
).
- Compute the covariance matrix
; (54).
- Compute the Cholesky decomposition of
; (47).
II. Simulation
- Simulate future i.i.d. normal random variables and plug them into (48) to get the simulated
(
).
- Plug the
into (50) and (49) to
get the simulated scenario of stock prices and interest rate model factors
(
).
- Plug the factors
into (38) or (39) to get spot rates
or bond prices.
- Reiterate the above three steps to get a large set of market scenarios.
III. Evaluation
- Choose (or assume to be given) a certain portfolio.
- Compute portfolio values (e.g. by (1)) using the scenarios
generated in step II.
- Compute the risk and performance measures (10), (12) and
(15) by the empirical
portfolio distributions obtained; cf. (31) to (33).
- If necessary, compute the partial derivatives
(23), (24) and (25).
IV. Optimization
- Use a GS or SI method repeating step III for each new
portfolio.
Note that the simulation procedure (=scenario generation; step II) must
only be done once. The optimization loops use the same set of scenarios
for alternating portfolios.
Next: First results
Up: Risk and performance optimization
Previous: The covariance matrix
2003-10-24 Approximity